Australia’s economy loses a guiding light as renowned economist Alan Oster retires after nearly 5 decades
This March, Australia spotlighted a significant moment in the nation’s economic landscape: renowned economist Alan Oster will retire at the end of the month after a legendary career that lasted over 50 years.
His retirement marks the end of an era. Widely regarded as one of Australia’s most revered economic minds, Oster first served as a Treasury official in the late 1970s. Over nearly five decades, he has witnessed and helped shape Australia’s economy’s evolution.
During his career, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) adjusted the official cash rate 360 times, with a high of 7.5% and a low of just 0.1%. Property prices in Australia’s capital cities surged by an astonishing 512%. Oster saw the country endure multiple economic shocks—from the recessions of 1980 and 1982 and the deep downturn of 1990 to the dot-com crash, the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Oster has described this era as “the scariest episode he’s seen”.
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When he joined NAB in 1993, with unemployment at 11%, inflation at 2.7%, and the cash rate at 5.75%, he quickly left his mark. Backed by then-CEO Don Argus, he transformed NAB’s quarterly business survey into a monthly indicator—a move that has had a lasting impact on the Australian market.
Today, that survey is considered one of Australia’s most closely watched economic reports. The Reserve Bank regularly cites it, and former RBA Governor Glenn Stevens once described it as one of only two economic indicators he paid close attention to—alongside the monthly labour force data.
As Australia’s unemployment rate hovers around 4%, with a 4.1% cash rate and 3.2% core inflation, Oster’s legacy continues to shape our understanding and anticipation of the nation’s economic pulse.
Though retirement may be official — but Oster’s insights are far from over.
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On 22 May, Alan Oster will return to the spotlight as the keynote speaker for Orens Capital’s 2025 “Deep Dive Series”—an exclusive thought leadership initiative curated for Australia’s top decision-makers. In this rare post-retirement appearance, Oster will unpack the proper fundamentals of Australia’s economy, shed light on hidden risks and overlooked opportunities, and help business leaders make confident decisions in an increasingly complex environment.
His keynote will also offer exclusive insights into how structural changes in the property market are reshaping investment, development, and affordability — decoding the key turning points and strategic openings that lie ahead.
Don’t miss this opportunity to hear directly from the economist who helped define Australia’s modern financial narrative.
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Orens Capital’s Deep Dive series is a monthly event essential for those eager to stay ahead of the curve. Please register your interest here for more information on the 2025 event lineup, registration details, and upcoming events.
The first-half lineup of the 2025 Deep Dive Series
28 March: The Tarneit Case Study – an in-depth exploration of successful large-scale developments
25 April: Orens Capital Southeast Project Site Visit – firsthand insights into the growth corridors of Casey and Cardinia Shire
22 May: Deep Dive Keynote featuring Alan Oster – timely discussions on rate adjustments and the macroeconomic implications of housing reforms
To register for the Deep Dive series, please click here.
“We couldn’t be more excited to have Alan share his insights at this critical juncture for the property market,” says Jimmy Zhang, founder and director of Orens Capital. “His macroeconomic perspective, coupled with our in-depth industry analysis, will help the property community understand where growth opportunities lie and how to navigate emerging challenges.”
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Previous keynote speakers who have shared insights at Orens Capital include Linda Allison, CEO of the Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) Victoria.
Our objective is to arm capital partners, developers, and stakeholders with the most up-to-date data and strategies so they can effectively respond to policy changes,” Zhang added. “By aligning our insights, we’re not just anticipating market shifts—we’re positioning ourselves to capitalise on them.”
To register for the Deep Dive series, please click here.
For more expert perspectives and actionable insights from industry leaders, please subscribe to Orens Capital’s Deep Dive Series.
*Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Disclaimer: This is general information only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs. Investors should seek independent finance advice before making any investment decisions.