Greenfield Momentum Returns as Rates Fall and Confidence Rebuilds
After two turbulent years for Australia’s greenfield land market, the sector is showing its first genuine signs of recovery. Recent data from RPM Group’s September 2025 Greenfield Market Update reveals a 29% year-on-year increase in gross lot sales, albeit still well below the long-term average, marking the most substantial uplift since 2021. This rebound is being fuelled by a combination of interest rate cuts, stabilising construction costs, and a gradual return of buyer confidence across Victoria’s growth corridors.
A Market Finding Its Footing
Following an extended period of elevated borrowing costs and subdued sentiment, the greenfield market is regaining balance. The Reserve Bank’s three rate cuts in 2025 have alleviated mortgage pressure and expanded borrowing capacity, while headline inflation has continued to moderate. For the first time in several years, affordability is trending back toward historical averages, allowing first-home buyers and upgraders to re-enter the market with renewed optimism.
At the same time, population fundamentals remain robust. Victoria continues to record 1.8% annual population growth —the second-highest in the country —underpinned by overseas migration inflows expected to average over 90,000 people per year through 2029. This steady population growth is providing the demand base necessary to absorb current stock levels and support the next cycle of development.
The Orens Capital Perspective
For Orens Capital, these macro improvements are already visible at the project level. Our active investment assets across Tarneit, Officer South, Geelong, and Melbourne’s western growth corridor have seen consistent sales momentum through 2025.
Orens Capital’s broader portfolio now spans 30+ subdivision projects and over $1.6 billion in deployed value across Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia. This footprint allows us to maintain a diversified exposure to growth regions while leveraging our long-standing relationships with developers, local councils, and infrastructure partners.
Positioned for the Next Cycle
As Australia enters a new phase of monetary easing, Orens Capital remains focused on disciplined growth. Our strategy emphasises capital preservation, measured leverage, and value creation through timing, identifying opportunities where market fundamentals, planning progress, and infrastructure delivery intersect.
While 2023–2024 tested resilience across the property and construction sectors, 2025 marks the beginning of a stabilisation phase. With affordability returning, migration accelerating, and borrowing conditions improving, the outlook for 2026 is one of measured optimism
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Disclaimer: This blog post in its entirety is prepared by Orens Capital Pty Ltd ACN 668 843 623 corporate authorised representative (number 001304386) of SILC Fiduciary Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 638 984 602 (AFS licence number 522145) (Investment Manager).
The authority of the Investment Manager is limited to general advice and dealing by arranging services to wholesale clients relating to the Geelong Guardian Fund and Creamery Delta Fund (collectively, the “Funds”) only.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
This document represents the opinions of the Investment Manager and is the product of internal research and does not in any way constitute an invitation or offer in relation to any financial product. The strategies and opinions expressed herein are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. No reliance may be placed on this document for any purpose nor used for the purpose of making a decision about a financial product or transaction.
The projections provided in this marketing material are based on the Investment Manager’s assumptions and analysis. These projections are forward-looking statements and are not guarantees of future performance. They are provided for informational purposes only. The actual results may differ significantly from the projections due to various risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to market conditions, economic factors, and changes in regulatory environments.