Breton Fleming, Director at Urbis: “Melbourne’s growth area sector is among Australia’s strongest and most highly sought-after investment sectors.”

With Victoria’s population projected to reach 10.3 million by 2051, housing demand has become a pressing issue. To meet this challenge, the state is planning to construct 2.24 million new homes by 2051, including 425,600 in regional and rural areas.

The Victoria Housing Statement: The Decade Ahead 2024-2034 outlines a target of 800,000 new homes over the next decade — 80,000 annually — supported by an Affordability Partnership with the housing industry. Whilst 70% of these are anticipated to be in the existing urban area, slow approvals, and issues around project viability mean that increasingly the growth corridors will have to lift to meet the overall target. In this context of sustained growth, the race for prime greenfield land has never been more competitive. As one of the foremost experts on urban development, Breton Fleming, Director at Urbis, sat down with Orens Capital to unpack the latest trends in greenfield investments in Victoria. 

Key Insights from Breton Fleming:

• Limited Supply in Established Areas: While Plan Melbourne’s latest Victorian update targets 70% of new housing in established areas, these areas need more space, zoning regulations, and available land for significant new developments. High-density developments, like apartments or townhouses, can only partially address housing shortages. Therefore, greenfield sites are necessary to meet the remaining 30% target of new dwellings, where larger-scale, lower-density and lower cost housing can be developed.
• Continued Need for Greenfield Development: There is also a limited supply of land that has already been zoned for residential use in Melbourne’s growth corridors. With only a 3-year supply of developable residential land that has a permit and 11 years of land supply within Precinct Structure Plans (PSPs), more land will need to be released or developed to meet future demand. This puts pressure on continued greenfield development to ensure a consistent supply of land for housing.
• Risk and Reward in Greenfield Development: Investing in greenfield sites presents both risks and rewards. Breton noted that while there are uncertainties in the planning processes, particularly for land outside the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB), the long-term rewards for development in the UGB may be considerable.
• Policy Development Trends: Breton also highlighted potential trends in planning policies that may shape the landscape over the next decade, with ongoing updates to the Planning and Environment Act. He highlighted that currently Victoria is running out of land meaning more emphasis on inner urban development, higher density, or movements in the UGB (or all 3), which are subject to legislative approval and may evolve as government priorities change​

Land Profile – Metropolitan Melbourne
Breton Fleming: “PSPs underway lands carry low to moderate risk, suitable for medium-term investment, but they require active involvement in the planning process.” (Source: Urbis)

As Breton stated, these insights reflect current trends in Melbourne’s growth areas, one of Australia’s most sought-after investment sectors. While competition for land is strong, there are many significant opportunities to acquire strategic land holdings within the Melbourne UGB.

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*Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Disclaimer: This is general information only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs. Investors should seek independent finance advice before making any investment decisions.

About Orens Capital:

Orens Capital is driven by a core mission: to dismantle the barriers that traditionally limit access to greenfield/land subdivision projects, which are the bedrock of the Australian residential market. 

The team at Orens Capital boasts diverse cultural backgrounds, shaping their approach uniquely. This diversity equips them with a distinct perspective to understand and effectively communicate the intricacies of their funds and projects, catering to the specific needs of their global partners.

At its core, Orens Capital believes in the resilience and potential of the Australian property market. By facilitating investments in land subdivision projects, Orens Capital aims to create generational wealth that benefits not only individual investors but also contributes to the development of families and communities across the country.

Reliability and dependability are fundamental to Orens Capital’s operations. Partners and investors can trust that with Orens Capital, they have found a steadfast ally committed to their success and prosperity.